Why hybrids will stay central to global mobility

At least half of the global fleet will still be powered by hybrid or combustion engines by 2040. It’s this statistic that’s driven us to develop innovative technologies like our Future Hybrid System and HORSE C15 range extender, which are designed to add a combustion engine to a preexisting battery electric vehicle.

Why do we think combustion will continue to play such a major role in global mobility? The answer comes down to long-term realities around geography, fuel technology, and the composition of global vehicle parcs. 

Urban and rural mobility realities

Electric vehicle adoption remains concentrated in dense, urbanized regions where charging infrastructure is most economical to deploy. According to the International Energy Agency, most global EV sales occur in China (60%) and Europe (25%), reflecting this urban bias. However, much of the world is rural, where long distances and sparse infrastructure make full electrification impractical. This will remain true in 2040, with rural dwellers set to make up over 35% of the global population. 

This suggests that hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and range-extended EVs will remain a critical solution for much of the rural world. Even in highly electrified markets, economical and efficient rural mobility and rural-urban economic links will require use of combustion engines for many years to come. Even in China, which accounts for over 70% of global EV production, around 90% of cars on the road are still ICE vehicles.

Infrastructure connecting urban and rural aerials host a variety of vehicle types

Read more about why the 80/20 rule is reshaping powertrain strategy.

Alternative fuels extending engine viability

Many rural and emerging economies are pursuing decarbonization through alternative fuels, including biofuels and flex fuels. Brazil exemplifies this approach: there, around 80% of new vehicle sales are powered by bioethanol engines, supported by the country’s strong domestic ethanol production and decades of investment in biofuel technology.

Globally, demand for biofuels is rising sharply, with consumption expected to reach 200 billion litres by 2028. Countries such as India are accelerating adoption through higher bioethanol blending standards, while governments and industry are also investing heavily in green hydrogen and e-fuels. Public funding, including hundreds of millions of euros from the EU for alternative fuel infrastructure, reflects an expectation that engines will remain in use for decades.

Read more about Brazil's technology-neutral automotive policies.

The challenge of fleets and heavy vehicles

Combustion dependence extends far beyond passenger cars. More than 300 million trucks and buses worldwide rely on combustion engines, representing critical infrastructure and long-term capital investments. Replacing these vehicles with electric alternatives is often economically unfeasible.

Retrofitting existing fleets to run on lower-carbon or alternative fuels offers a more realistic pathway, enabling emissions reductions without prematurely retiring assets worth billions of dollars.

Read more about why automakers should hybridize their BEVs.

A pragmatic path forward

Combustion and hybrid vehicles are not disappearing in the near term. The diversity of global mobility needs makes a single decarbonization solution unrealistic. Urban and rural requirements differ significantly, as do the challenges facing passenger vehicles versus commercial fleets.

Ongoing investment in alternative fuels demonstrates a commitment to sustainability that builds on existing combustion infrastructure rather than replacing it outright. For many markets, engine-powered vehicles will remain essential technologies well into the future, forming part of a multi-path approach to global decarbonization.

Find out more about Horse Powertrain’s next generation hybrid and combustion solutions.